Wednesday, April 15, 2009

(No) Sweep the Leg

Tonight's loss doesn't bug me too much. Why? Because even after they tied things up at 3-3, did you REALLY ever get the sense they were gonna win that game? Yeah, me neither.

Most Reds fans will likely be praising Micah Owings and cursing Jared Burton after this one. I'm gonna do the opposite.

Let's start with Burton, who simply didn't have it tonight. It happens. You make mistakes in the middle of the plate and good hitters will make you pay -- even Jason Kendall. But let's not lose sight of the fact that Burton is a well above average major league reliever who entered tonight's game with a career 2.95 ERA with 95 K in 105 IP. In 105 career appearances, he'd also given up 4 earned runs in an outing a grand total of ONE time before tonight's debacle.

In other words, he'll be fine. His track record is just too good. I cannot, however, say the same about Micah Owings.

On paper, his stats from tonight look okay: 5 IP, 5 H, 4 ER. Those aren't terrible numbers from your #5 starter, especially after the Reds endured a season where they went 4-21 in starts made by their fifth starter in 2008.

Did he keep the Reds in the game? Sure. Is he a better option than Homer Bailey right now? Sure. But if you think he's gonna be any better than he was tonight... I wouldn't get your hopes up.

Yes, he was ultimately injured last season and so 2008 might not provide us with the best statistical sample... but in his final 14 starts for Arizona a year ago he gave up 4 earned runs or more in 7 -- or half -- of those outings.

He doesn't have plus stuff, and when he gets the ball up bad things happen (see also: Mike Cameron). Doesn't he remind you of another pitcher on the Reds roster (even in his delivery) who doesn't have great stuff and tries to live on the outside corner with a fastball-slider combo?

Doesn't Owings remind you of a younger David Weathers? To me, that's not a good thing.

And oh yeah, before I forget... Chris Dickerson has a chance to be really, really good. Also, what are the odds that Willy Taveras keeps getting on base (.409 OBP) at the rate he currently is? You've probably got a better chance of winning the Indy 500 with a pair of roller skates.

Off day tomorrow in Houston... then the Reds face Roy Oswalt Friday. In case you've been locked in the bathroom for the last eight years, Oswalt is 23-1 all-time versus the Reds. That's just silly.

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